Recently, the policies of mutual recognition and loan of housing provident fund and withdrawal from different places have been intensively introduced in many places, and the integration of provident fund has gradually become a fashion. Its linkage effect on regional economy and whether it affects the regional real estate market have attracted the attention of the outside world.
On November 5, the cooperation of housing provident fund loans in different places in Greater Nanchang Metropolitan Area was officially launched in Nanchang. Cooperation agreements were signed for the housing provident fund systems in Jiujiang, Yichun, Fuzhou, Shangrao and Nanchang.
On October 28th, Jiaodong Economic Circle introduced the policy of provident fund integration, which benefited Qingdao, Yantai, Weihai, Weifang and Rizhao. According to the policy, in the future, when employees who have paid the provident fund in five cities apply for loans in other four cities, they will no longer be restricted by whether they have local household registration, and they can enjoy the same rights and interests as the loan employees where the loan application institution is located.
In fact, this kind of provident fund cooperation between provinces and cities is not uncommon. According to incomplete statistics, more than 50 places have introduced new provident fund policies during the year, among which there are many new policies involving the integration of provident fund in the economic circle.
Wang Jinbin, deputy dean of the School of Economics of China Renmin University and professor of macroeconomics, told CBN that the mutual loan of provident fund in different places is an improvement of the provident fund system. When the flow of provident fund is not restricted by regions, it is beneficial to the flow of people and urbanization. Money goes with people, not people, which is conducive to improving the efficiency of factors and thus promoting the domestic cycle.
Cross-regional loans promote the turnover rate of provident fund in economic circle
Behind the acceleration of the integration of provident fund is the long-standing problem of uneven flow of provident fund in the same economic circle. The root cause is that most employees in the past can only make provident fund loans at the place where the provident fund is deposited.
According to the 2019 Annual Report of National Housing Provident Fund released in June, the withdrawal amount of housing provident fund in Beijing, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangzhou exceeded 100 billion yuan, while the withdrawal amount of housing provident fund in 12 other provinces was less than 30 billion yuan, and that in some areas was less than 10 billion yuan. In terms of loan amount, in 2019, Jiangsu’s housing provident fund loans were the highest, totaling 122.604 billion yuan, up 29.3% year-on-year, with Guangdong and Shanghai ranking second and third. In addition, housing provident fund loans in Shandong, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Beijing and Hubei exceeded 50 billion yuan.
Liu Lin, a researcher at China Macroeconomic Research Institute, once said that because funds can’t flow across regions, there are both insufficient liquidity and excess liquidity of housing provident fund. In areas where the housing market is hot, the amount of housing provident fund loans has dropped and queuing loans have occurred frequently, while in areas where the housing market is hot, a large number of housing provident funds have precipitated.
The large stock and the difficulty in destocking have restricted the development of the property market in third-and fourth-tier cities. Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said that the integration of provident fund in the economic circle has a great supporting effect on cross-city housing purchase.
Wang Jinbin analyzed that mutual loans from different places can divert some people who can’t afford housing prices in central cities, or those who have plans to return home, thus increasing the radiation effect of central cities and promoting the process of regional urbanization.
Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of RealData, believes that provident fund loan is a policy tool to support the demand for housing purchase, which can not directly promote the economic development of urban agglomerations, but is beneficial to population mobility. For regions with relatively balanced development among cities and strong population mobility, mutual recognition of provident funds has greater value space.
Xu Xiaole said that the proportion of provident fund in housing purchase is not high, especially in the core cities with higher housing prices. But it is good for some just-needed groups. Mutual recognition and mutual lending in urban circles can promote the reasonable distribution of customers with different housing needs among cities.
On March 28 this year, Sichuan and Chongqing established a cross-regional transfer and connection and mutual recognition and loan mechanism. According to the Chengdu Housing Provident Fund Management Center, as of October 23, through data sharing, employees who have deposited in Chengdu Center have applied for provident fund loans in Chongqing Center for more than 120 times, and more than 30 provident fund loans have been issued, with a total amount of about 13 million yuan.
Yan Yuejin said that the mutual recognition and loan mechanism of provident funds between the two places can promote the circulation of talents between the two places.
Limited benefit to the population and little short-term impact on the property market.
According to combing, there are at least seven cases of regional integration of housing provident fund in China.
First, in September 2019, 10 cities in Huaihai Economic Zone signed an integration agreement on housing provident fund. Second, in December 2019, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Housing Provident Fund information sharing platform was established. Third, in March, 2020, a symposium on the integrated development of housing provident fund in the economic circle of Chengdu and Chongqing was held. Fourth, in August 2020, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Anhui provinces and one city signed the Framework Agreement on Strategic Cooperation for the Integration of Housing Provident Funds in the Yangtze River Delta. Fifth, in September 2020, 20 cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River signed the Convention on Cooperation in Housing Provident Fund Management Centers of Urban Agglomerations in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River. Sixth, in October, 2020, the joint meeting on the integrated development of housing provident fund in Jiaodong Economic Circle was held in Qingdao. Seventh, in November 2020, the cooperation of housing provident fund loans in different places in the Greater Nanchang Metropolitan Area was officially launched in Nanchang.
As far as the economic circle is concerned, will the integration of provident fund relieve the pressure on central cities to lend provident fund, and will help third-and fourth-tier cities resist the siphon effect of central cities and raise housing prices?
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that the purpose of this policy is to release the surplus population in big cities, but it has little impact on the real estate market in the economic circle.
"The withdrawal amount of the provident fund is low. For talents who work hard in first-tier cities, it is impossible to rely on the provident fund to buy commercial housing. Naturally, they will not give up their development opportunities in first-tier cities just because they can borrow from different places. The number of people who use the provident fund to lend in different places is still very small. " Zhang Dawei said.
A few days ago, nationwide, the deposit of provident fund was still narrow. It is reported that the number of employees paid into the national provident fund only accounts for about one-third of all employed people in cities and towns, and in 2019, employees in private enterprises accounted for about 68%. According to the 2019 Annual Report of the National Housing Provident Fund, among the indicators of "new housing provident fund paid employees", the proportion of employees in private enterprises nationwide is only 33%.
Zhang Dawei said that the practice of mutual loan of provident fund in different places does have "chicken ribs". "At present, if we want the provident fund system to have more radiation and greater influence, we should focus on how to use innovative means to increase the amount of provident fund loans available to employees in the local area, such as issuing discount loans."
It is worth noting that the mutual loan of provident fund in different places does not mean that buyers can obtain the qualification to buy a house in different places, and the barriers to buying a house in the economic circle still exist. Taking Chengdu-Chongqing area as an example, according to the conditions of the provident fund policy in the main city of Chongqing, only the first suite and the first mortgage can be used in the main city of Chongqing at the same time, and not every property in Chongqing supports provident fund loans.
Xu Xiaole told CBN that as a policy loan, the role of the provident fund system is still to meet the people who just need it, and the provident fund alone cannot stimulate the demand for real estate speculation.
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