Since the beginning of this year, the outside world has paid great attention to the price rise and fall of Feitian Maotai. As early as April, the transaction price of Feitian Maotai’s loose bottles fell below 2,600 yuan, which has already surprised the liquor circle.
Now, after a lapse of two months, the head of Kweichow Moutai (600519) has been changed from Ding Xiongjun to Zhang Deqin, but Feitian Moutai has failed to stop the downward trend. At present, the terminal price of Feitian Maotai has reached about 2300 yuan/bottle, and the price drop storm continues to hit. Some people think that the popularity of "whipped eggs" weakens the consumption of liquor in business banquets, which is both a ridicule and a realistic feedback of consumption scenes.
Recently, the stock price of Kweichow Moutai has been falling continuously, which has been obviously affected. In order to stabilize the stock price and wine price, how many tricks can Zhang Deqin use?
Store a box of flying or lose 2000 yuan.
"Bulk flying Maotai spikes, 2399 yuan/bottle, limited to 100 boxes, collecting money to keep the goods." On June 12, Wang Min (a pseudonym), the account manager of a large chain tobacco and alcohol sales brand in Henan, took photos in the circle of friends to attract customers.
"In the past, the price fluctuation of Moutai was around 20 to 30 yuan every time, which has been relatively stable, but in these two or three months, each bottle fell by 300 yuan, which I have never seen since I made sales." Wang Min said that the flying price of the original box has also dropped from around 3,000 yuan/bottle to the current 2,700 yuan/bottle. "This is definitely not good news for consumers who were keen on drinking before. The decline of a bottle of 300 yuan has dropped by nearly 2,000 yuan per box, which is still very large. " She said.
Affected by the market downturn, the sales performance of Maotai retail stores will inevitably decline.
Wang Min said that customers who used to like to buy wine all regarded Maotai as an investment product, thinking that buying Maotai could preserve the value and increase the value, and even if it was not used temporarily, they could buy two bottles. But now this mentality has obviously weakened. Customers used to be able to buy ten boxes at a time, but now they have changed to one or two boxes at a time, or even stopped buying them for the time being.
According to the e-commerce platform of JD.COM, the price of Feitian Maotai sold by Kweichow Moutai JD.COM self-operated store is 1,499 yuan/bottle, and it is still necessary to make an appointment to purchase and a bottle is hard to find. In the liquor self-operated area of JD.COM Supermarket, the price of 53-degree 500ml bulk flying Maotai liquor delivered in 2023 is 2579 yuan/bottle; In addition, the price of 6 bottles of Guizhou Moutai (I Maotai) gift box set with 53 degrees 100ml in 2024 is 2375 yuan/set, which can be purchased directly.
Today’s wine price data shows that as of June 12, the market price of the original box of 53 degrees 500ml Feitian Maotai, which was delivered in 2024, was about 2,696 yuan/bottle, which fell below the integer mark of 2,700 yuan/bottle; The market price of bulk flying Maotai in the same year and specification continued to decline, and now it has dropped to 2420 yuan/bottle; In addition, the prices of Maotai in other years and varieties have also declined to varying degrees.
However, according to the reporter of Securities Times E Company, although the prices of Maotai series products have generally declined in recent months, the impact on the overall high-end liquor market is not obvious. Recently, the prices of high-end products such as Wuliangye and LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD have remained stable.
Social attributes have weakened.
Then, why did the price of Maotai series products suddenly show a rare decline?
As Wang Min, who is close to the front-line consumers, she gave a more interesting statement that "whipping eggs" should bear certain responsibilities.
Wang Min said, "In the past, whether it was a business banquet or a family gathering, everyone sat at the dinner table to communicate and drink, and a meal often consumed three or five bottles of white wine. However, in recent years, whipped eggs have become popular. No matter whether it is a business banquet or a family gathering, a lot of time will be spent playing cards, and even a bottle of food can’t be drunk. " Wang Min said that when communicating with customers, many people talked about that the popular game of whipping eggs has become the "number one killer" to squeeze liquor sales. Many dinners have even refused to drink alcohol in order to play cards.
As a chess game, whipped eggs, with its fun and extensive social attributes, have spread all over the country in recent years and become a new "password" for interpersonal communication.
A business person told the reporter of Securities Times E Company: "Now, for a quick lunch meal, it only takes 15 minutes to eat, and the rest one hour is beating eggs. How can anyone drink?"
The market has a strong wait-and-see mood.
If the popularity of whipped eggs affects the consumption of drinks, it may be more because everyone is helpless in teasing the liquor industry.
Cai Xuefei, general manager of Zhiqu Consulting and liquor analyst, told the reporter of Securities Times E Company: "At present, it belongs to the off-season of liquor consumption, and Maotai is in the alternating running-in stage of personnel and strategy, and the market has a strong wait-and-see mood. In addition, the market and investors have great differences on the external economic environment and the future consumption expectations of liquor, which has led to the adjustment of the price of Maotai."
Cai Xuefei believes that the social attributes of Maotai in the high-end banquet and gift market have not changed, and the actual selling price is still much higher than the official guiding price of Maotai, and the proportion of direct sales of Maotai is also close to 50%, which are the cornerstones for Maotai to maintain price stability. In the past few years, Maotai has built a number of products with subdivided price bands, including 1935, Zodiac, distinguished products, treasures, fine products, etc. A relatively complete product matrix and a diversified profit structure have enhanced Maotai’s overall ability to resist risks, which is the key to Maotai’s steady progress and sustainable development.
From a practical point of view, Maotai sellers took the initiative to reduce prices in order to expand demand, but the demand did not increase correspondingly, which triggered a wait-and-see mood. Now they are facing problems such as insufficient overall market demand and excessive stock. In fact, the situation is very difficult. But objectively speaking, Feitian Maotai, as a famous wine representative, a certain price reduction will also bring about the expansion of market consumption demand and people, thus achieving a new balance between supply and demand.
At the beginning of June, the first big move came after Maotai new coach Zhang Deqin took office, and the policy of "enterprises purchasing 1499 yuan for flying" was suspended. It is said that the reason is that the number of applicants is too large and the quota is saturated. As for when the policy will be resumed, it is unknown. Some dealers confirmed to reporters that it did happen, and the main reason was to stabilize prices.
In response to the above policies, Cai Xuefei said that from the current point of view, Kweichow Moutai has suspended the policy of purchasing flying at a low price for enterprises, trying to stabilize product prices and balance the interests between direct sales and distribution systems by reducing market input.
According to Cai Xuefei’s personal judgment, the effect of this policy needs to be closely observed. Of course, Kweichow Moutai is the industry benchmark, and the continuous decline in the price of Maotai will inevitably squeeze the market space of other high-end liquor brands, which is also full of challenges for the overall development of the industry.
Will traditional distributors stabilize the price of wine?
"The relevant parties re-enabled Zhang Deqin as the chairman of Kweichow Moutai. What may be valued is that Zhang Deqin has the mobilization ability of the old Moutai department and the old Moutai dealers, and he plays a key role at a critical moment. Zhang Deqin has a long way to go." Xiao Zhuqing, a wine critic in China, told the Securities Times reporter.
In Xiao Zhuqing’s view, the decline in the share price and liquor price of Kweichow Moutai is unbearable in many aspects. At present, all units in the system of Guizhou Province have Moutai quotas that have been inherited from history, and these Moutai quotas have become the source of wages for all units or an important part of the package of "Guizhou goods coming out of the mountain". Nowadays, the price of Moutai has fallen, and it is difficult for relevant parties to bear the consequences of the continuous decline of Moutai.
Xiao Zhuqing believes that in order to stabilize the stock price and wine price, there are not many tricks left for Zhang Deqin to use. In fact, all the tricks that can be used to improve performance are almost the same, such as increasing the proportion of self-operated channels, launching I Moutai digital marketing platform to carry out marketing for C-end, and trying to cross-border joint funds to pursue fame and fortune.
In 2023, the revenue of Kweichow Moutai’s direct sales channel was greatly improved, and the gap with the wholesale agency channel was reduced to about 12 billion yuan. Among them, the direct sales revenue of Kweichow Moutai reached 67.232 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.16%; At the same time, the direct sales revenue has increased significantly, and its operating cost has also increased significantly. The annual operating cost of direct sales mode is 3.051 billion yuan, up 62.78% year-on-year. In contrast, the traditional wholesale agent sales model has little fluctuation.
On May 10th, Zhang Deqin, who just took office, hosted a symposium for dealers in Kweichow Moutai, Zhejiang, Fujian and Su Sansheng in Hangzhou to respond to the demands and concerns of dealers. Zhang Deqin encouraged dealers and the company’s sales team to build confidence and work together to create a new situation in Maotai marketing.
At the symposium, Zhang Deqin said that the dealers are the family members of Maotai, an important support for the growth of Maotai and an indispensable key force for Maotai. In the future, Maotai will continue to respect and care for dealers, and manufacturers will work together to promote the better development of Maotai.
According to Xiao Zhuqing’s prediction, Zhang Deqin’s next move may be to mobilize the traditional dealers of Moutai and buy low-priced Moutai with real money to boost the market transaction price. China liquor dealers all know that Maotai dealers are afraid that Kweichow Moutai Sales Company will assess/reduce the amount of a certain customer. Xiao Zhuqing predicted that the planned assessment of the increase and decrease of Moutai in the future, as a "carrot and stick", will drive dealers to come up with real gold and platinum to stabilize the price of liquor.
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