The volatility of A shares has increased recently. How will the market interpret this week when it enters the last trading week in March?
The Paper collected the opinions of 10 brokers. Most brokers believe that although the short-term strong overseas dollar and other factors may have an impact on the risk appetite and liquidity expectation of A shares, the market does not rule out short-term fluctuations, but the A-share repair market is still expected to continue, and we still need to look for opportunities with a positive attitude.
CICC said that the marginal changes in short-term news have amplified investors’ emotional fluctuations, and the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has also increased due to external factors such as the higher US dollar index. Looking back, although short-term fluctuations are not ruled out, the A-share repair market is still expected to continue.
"The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate caused by short-term strong overseas dollar is worthy of attention, which may have an impact on the market’s risk appetite and liquidity expectations. In the medium term, the RMB exchange rate will stabilize with the advance of the US dollar interest rate cut cycle. The A-share market will shift from a performance vacuum period to a quarterly report, and investors can focus on grasping the strong varieties of a quarterly report. " CITIC Jiantou Securities pointed out.
Guotai Junan Securities further pointed out that objectively speaking, the cumulative increase is relatively large and the market is under normal pressure to give back. However, after the growth expectation bottomed out and the microstructure cleared at the beginning of the year, the overall market expectation did not appear further downward revision and was relatively stable. This means that after the exponential rebound, there should be a structural market, and differentiation does not mean the end.
In terms of configuration, many brokers are still optimistic about the future performance of TMT.
CICC pointed out that the TMT field, driven by the expectation of scientific and technological progress and catalyzed by policies related to new quality productivity, is still expected to show relative performance, and the Internet, computer and electronics sectors are expected to continue to be active; There may be phased opportunities for equipment update related sectors.
CITIC Securities: Moving Up as a Whole
Looking forward to the market outlook, the three right signals of economic data, policy response and overseas liquidity will be tested one after another in the second quarter. It is expected that the three major changes in market ecology will promote the overall upward movement of A shares, barbell dominance and small ticket repair.
In terms of configuration, the barbell structure composed of dividend and new quality productivity theme will still run through the whole spring market. Therefore, investors are advised to continue to adhere to the barbell strategy, with dividend assets as the bottom position, and pay more attention to profitability and cash flow stability in the future; The theme of new quality productivity is to attack, and you can still actively participate before the active capital position rises systematically.
CICC: The repair market is still expected to continue.
Since the beginning of February, the A-share market has rebounded under the background of the steady growth policy and the expected capital market reform. After the recent index fluctuated around key points for a period of time, investors are paying attention to the new upward catalysis.
Looking forward to the market outlook, the marginal changes in short-term news amplify investors’ emotional fluctuations, and the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has also increased due to external factors such as the higher US dollar index. Looking back, although short-term fluctuations are not ruled out, the A-share repair market is still expected to continue.
In terms of industry configuration, the TMT field driven by the expectation of scientific and technological progress and catalyzed by policies related to new quality productivity is still expected to have relative performance, and the Internet, computer and electronics sectors are expected to continue to be active; There may be phased opportunities for equipment update related sectors; Investors in high dividend companies need to pay attention to the pace of allocation.
CITIC Jiantou Securities: Pay attention to the exchange rate and closely follow the quarterly report.
Looking forward to the market outlook, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate caused by short-term strong overseas dollar is worthy of attention, which may have an impact on market risk appetite and liquidity expectation. In the medium term, the RMB exchange rate will stabilize with the advance of the US dollar interest rate cut cycle. In April, the A-share market will shift from the performance vacuum period to the first quarterly report, and the short-term focus will return to fundamental pricing. The style should not be too radical, and investors can focus on the strong varieties of the first quarterly report.
Specifically, on the one hand, the quarterly report window is approaching, and investment returns to the fundamental main line. Domestic economic data ushered in a good start, regulatory policies increased the healthy and benign development of the capital market, and the government stepped up efforts to support the real estate market. The external monetary policy environment is gradually relaxed, and the RMB exchange rate will remain stable in the medium term. Short-term investors can return to the fundamentals and pay attention to the strong varieties in the first quarter.
On the other hand, as the performance vacuum period comes to an end, the market is expected to gradually return to fundamental pricing from the "heavy catalysis and heavy expectation" thinking in the spring agitation, and usher in the "April decision period". In the middle of the year, under the background of gradual recovery of economic activities, performance disclosure period and the adjustment of the two sessions, the market will gradually return to the fundamental pricing model.
In terms of allocation, medium-term investors can continue to grasp three lines: high dividends, overseas and new quality productivity. The industry can focus on nonferrous metals, home appliances, machinery, automotive intelligence, electricity, petroleum, optical modules, semiconductor equipment and so on.
Guotai Junan Securities: Shock Differentiation
Looking forward to the market outlook, the index rebounded from the overall situation into shock and differentiation, but generally speaking, it is not expected to be revised downwards, and it is still necessary to look for opportunities with a positive attitude.
Objectively speaking, at present, there is a lack of upward motivation for growth expectations, a large cumulative increase and the approach of a quarterly report, and there is normal pressure on the market to retreat. However, it should also be noted that after the growth expectation bottomed out and the microstructure cleared out at the beginning of the year, although the growth data at this stage is not satisfactory, the overall expectation has not been further revised and is relatively stable. This means that after the exponential rebound, there should be a structural market, and differentiation does not mean the end.
In terms of style, when the growth expectation is no longer revised down, the risk evaluation drops, and the growing growth outperforms. Next, with the increase of economic and stock market risk prevention measures and the emergence of structural policies around "new quality", the current investment style of the stock market is still growing.
In terms of configuration, although the data is unsatisfactory, the overall social expectation has not been further revised. It is expected that the stock index will enter a shock differentiation after oversold rebound, but it does not mean that the market is over. Therefore, with the theme of "new quality productivity" taking advantage of the wind, we are optimistic about the opportunity of equipment renewal and old-for-new structure at present, and high dividends still need to wait for the opportunity.
Haitong Securities: The pace of short-term market rise may slow down.
At present, it is still in the first wave of upward rebound at the bottom. Since the low point on February 5, the market risk appetite has been significantly repaired, and the market’s attention to positive signals has also been significantly improved. Compared with history, this round of market may not be over yet. Compared with the historical current round, the rising rate of the market is obviously faster, and the market has also accumulated some profit-taking pressure. Next, it should be noted that the short-term market rising pace may slow down.
In terms of configuration, the short-term focus is on the opportunities for the industry to make up for the ups and downs, and the medium-term focus is on the white horse. Referring to historical experience, because the driving force for the market to rise during the first wave of rebound at the bottom is often emotional recovery, the structure often shows a general increase and a round increase in various industries. Historically, the dispersion of industry ups and downs in this period is obviously low, so we should pay attention to the opportunities for compensatory growth in stagflation industries in the early stage in the short term.
From a longer-term perspective, the policy may be further overweight in 2024, and the macro and micro fundamentals are expected to gradually improve. In the process, the flexibility of white horse stocks may be greater.
Huatai Securities: The market entered a period of rebound and rest.
In March, the Federal Reserve gave guidance to the pigeons, but the scissors difference between the Federal Reserve and the European and Japanese central banks, oil prices and other factors supported the strength of the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate may be under pressure. The inflection point of overseas liquidity and global liquidity distribution remains to be seen.
Looking forward to the market outlook, the market will enter a rebound period, which is the key to the improvement of economic expectations, the entry of incremental funds or the subsequent trend. Market transactions are in the "vernal equinox moment". Before the harvest season, the layout looks at two major themes in the short term, style switching in the medium term and deep value in the long term.
In terms of allocation, investors need to pay attention to the winning rate, continue to recommend the combination of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and suggest that the low-performance varieties in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 should be used as the combination allocation, and pay attention to the three clues of annual report performance certainty-external demand pull, supply constraints, industrial cycle, and some upstream resource products (petrochemical/coal, etc.), consumption (automobile/household appliances/agriculture, etc.) and TMT (communication, etc.) industries whose performance in the first quarterly report is expected to exceed expectations.
China Merchants Securities: During the performance disclosure period, it is recommended to focus on the excellent white horse leader.
In April, the market entered the performance disclosure period, and the theme and track investment had certain rules according to the performance disclosure and performance vacuum period. Some indexes close to the theme investment are prone to underperform the market in January and April of the performance disclosure period. In the performance disclosure period, it is a relatively good strategy to choose according to whether the performance is lower than expected, and to focus on the outstanding white horse leader.
In the short term, for track investors, it is necessary to pay more attention to the sub-sectors and targets with high performance redemption and continuous exceeding expectations. In terms of style selection, the dividend strategy based on high dividends in the past three years is expected to gradually switch to the leading strategy of various industries focusing on high ROE, high free cash flow ratio and marginal improvement under the background that this year has basically stabilized and the pace of corporate capital expenditure is more stable.
Market growth, CSI 300 and CSI A50 may be relatively more dominant. In addition, the double 50 of CSI A50 and Kechuang 50 may be a new "dumbbell" strategy that has gradually become dominant this year.
SDIC Securities: The bottom of A-share profit will appear in the third quarter at the latest.
Facing the A-share market in the second quarter, the question that the market is most concerned about is whether it is expected to change the shock pattern after the plunge and realize the upward trend. From the perspective of investment logic, it is necessary to distinguish whether the core contradiction of A-share pricing in the second quarter is internal or external, and the core of internal problems lies in the judgment of A-share profit bottom; The core of the external problem is whether the global capital represented by FDI will return to China under the expectation of the Fed’s interest rate cut.
From the current point of view, the core of A-share pricing in the second quarter is still internal, supplemented by external, and further prediction: if we want to break through the shock pattern in the second quarter, then the required condition is that we can meet the bottom of profit in the next six months, that is, it will appear in the third quarter at the latest.
The three directions of high dividend in one quarter+technology+going out to sea have verified the four effective investment strategies repeatedly emphasized, especially in 2024, the double main lines of technology (AI (media+optical module+pedestrian robot)+new quality productivity (TMT+ medicine+low-altitude economy))+going out to sea (three lines to sea, look for cars (commercial vehicles), ships’ electricity (household appliances)) have been further verified, and they have also been confirmed again.
Huaan Securities: The market with profit support is dawning.
Looking forward to the second quarter, compared with expectations, endogenous growth is not bad, policies are not weak, and the market with profit support is gradually approaching. The second quarter is the turning point of fundamental support, and the market is expected to "go bright in doubt".
In terms of configuration, we should pay attention to three main lines: first, we should be active in growth and give consideration to certainty, including certainty opportunities for military industry, medium-term opportunities for electronics, phased thematic opportunities for media, computers and communications; The second is upstream restoration, including coal, non-ferrous metals (industrial metals, precious metals), industrial steel, electricity, etc. Third, the theme of new quality productivity, equipment renewal, semiconductor equipment, special equipment, environmental protection equipment, industrial mother machines, robots and so on.
Huaxi Securities: Will Still Have Resilience
The current round of spring market has continued to this day. Wandequan A and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index have been restored to the level at the beginning of this year, and the Shanghai Composite Index has been restored to the high point since November last year. Its main driving force comes from the continuous inflow of incremental funds into A shares and the improvement of risk appetite under the care of the regulatory authorities.
From the perspective of market rhythm, the industry rotation has obviously accelerated since March. Up to now, 61% of Shenwan’s first-class industries have recovered to the level at the beginning of this year. In contrast, in the rebound market in May 2022 and November 2022, 94% of the industry’s P/E ratios were restored to the pre-adjustment period. Recently, the characteristics of oversold and rebound in the market have weakened, but the regulatory authorities are still actively caring for the continuous improvement of the micro-liquidity of the stock market, and the A-share market outlook will still be resilient.
In terms of allocation, investors are advised to focus on blue-chip sectors with abundant cash flow and stable dividends, such as electricity and publishing, supplemented by TMT themes that benefit from domestic application breakthroughs and industrial policy support.
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