Comments | The decision-making level made five statements within one month. How to get the house price in 2017?

Comments | The decision-making level made five statements within one month. How to get the house price in 2017?

  CCTV News:Looking back on 2016, this year’s property market can be described as "first rising and then restraining". If the hot words in the first half of the year are skyrocketing housing prices, then the hot words in the second half of the year are undoubtedly the introduction of regulatory policies, and this trend is continuing.

  Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Pay close attention to hot cities, control housing prices, and destock third-and fourth-tier cities

  On the 29th, the website of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development published the Circular of the Party Group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the Communist Party of China on Inspection and Rectification, pointing out that it will continuously strengthen the regulation of the real estate market and actively carry out research.Pay close attention to hot cities to control housing prices, and third-and fourth-tier cities and counties and cities to go to stock.And standardize and rectify the market order.

  In fact, this has been the decision-making level since December.the fifth timeClear real estate regulation and control objectives.

  The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on December 9, pointing out that it is necessary to dissolve the real estate inventory, accelerate the urbanization of migrant workers, promote the reform of the housing system to meet new citizens, expand effective demand, and stabilize the real estate market.

  On December 14th, the Central Economic Work Conference held a meeting and pointed out that it is necessary to adhere to the position that "houses are used for living, not for speculation" and put forward solutions.

  On December 21st, the 14th meeting of the Central Leading Group for Finance and Economics emphasized standardizing the housing rental market and curbing the real estate bubble.

  On December 26th, Chen Zhenggao, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Construction, pointed out that we should do a good job in preventing bubbles and risks in hot cities.

  Since the introduction of the new policy of property market regulation in many cities across the country on September 30, the price increase in many hot cities across the country declined in November.

△ On December 11th, China Index Academy released the national residential price index of 100 cities in November 2016.

  However, the transaction volume price of some cities is still at a high level, which also triggered the second upgrade of the regulatory policies of a series of cities. It is worth mentioning that since December, the efforts to control housing prices in various places are still increasing:

  Upgrade purchase restriction in several provincial capital cities:

  December 26, Jinan City

  Purchase restriction for registered households in this city2 sets; Foreign purchase restriction1 set, and must provide proof of paying personal income tax or social insurance in urban areas for more than 24 consecutive months. In addition, in the new property market policy issued by Jinan, clear management measures are put forward for the transaction behavior of the land market.

  In December, Zhengzhou City restricted purchase and loan double upgrade.

  On December 21st, Zhengzhou announced the regulation policy and upgraded the existing purchase restriction policy. That is, on the basis of the original purchase restriction,More than 180 square meters (inclusive)Housing (including new commercial housing and stock housing) is also included in the scope of purchase restriction.

  Non-Zhengzhou household registration families need to provide continuous payment in Zhengzhou when purchasing houses in Zhengzhou.More than 2 years(including 2 years) personal income tax or social insurance certificate. In addition, the New Deal has further increased the use of other means of regulation, such as reaffirming the strict control of housing provident fund credit policy.

  On December 23, Henan Province issued the Notice on Further Improving the Personal Housing Loan Business in Zhengzhou Restricted Area, and the down payment ratio of the second suite was adjusted to60%The Zhengzhou real estate market’s loan restriction regulation policy has been upgraded again.

  On December 21, Wuhan issued a notice to expand the scope of housing purchase restriction.

  It is stipulated that from December 22nd, Wuhan will increase the housing purchase restriction in some areas of Dongxihu District, Jiangxia District and huangpi district.

  Beijing, a typical representative of first-tier cities, also clearly pointed out a few days ago that investment speculation should be resolutely curbed.Ensure that house prices will not increase in 2017.. This means that controlling housing prices has become the top priority of real estate regulation.

  The central level has repeatedly reiterated the requirements of real estate regulation and control, and the upgrading of local regulation and control policies have further explained the urgency of real estate regulation and control. Looking forward to 2017, how will the real estate market go?

  In the hot real estate market, everyone hopes to have a magical crystal ball and see the future development direction of the market. Any judgment on whether the future house price changes will rise or fall is like a gambling game.Fortunately, however, the market trend is a linear continuation. Summarizing the changes in the property market in the past year, we can see some clues about the market in the next 12 months.

  Multi-pronged approach, the property market continues to cool down

  First of all, the soaring housing prices in the first ten months of 2016 are related to loose money and credit and lax supervision.Some funds originally expected to enter the real economy have instead entered the real estate investment field to promote housing prices.After October, a series of policies to strictly control the risks of real estate financial business, including prohibiting illegal issuance or misappropriation of credit funds into the real estate sector, have an immediate impact on real estate.According to the price dynamics of newly-built houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities in November released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on December 19th, the number of cities whose house prices fell month-on-month increased to 11, an increase of 4 cities compared with October.

  One of the priorities of the central bank’s monetary policy in 2017 will be to curb the real estate bubble.In 2017, the monetary policy will remain stable and neutral, and at the same time, efforts will be made to prevent and control asset bubbles and strictly limit the flow of credit to invest in speculative housing purchases.The monetary authorities can induce short-term interest rate increase and guide banks to slow down the growth rate of real estate-related financing through regulation, and these measures will cool down the real estate.

  Secondly, the high housing prices in 2016 are related to residents’ lack of investment channels.At the beginning of the year, the successive "fuse" and "stock market crash" made a large number of investors lose confidence in the stock market. After a knife and knife, a lot of funds were transferred from the stock market and flowed to the property market that seemed to have a good rate of return at that time. After the addition of this fund, the heat of the market has been greatly improved and the property price has been raised.

  In the new year, although it is hard to say that the stock market will definitely pick up, it is unlikely to be worse than in the past.Moreover, the chances of a bond market pullback after the year-end crash are also rising.Therefore, in the new year, investors will have more choices and may not necessarily stick to the real estate with poor liquidity.This kind of asset diversion will make the property market "de-bubble" to a certain extent.

  Third, in the new year, the government’s control over the property market will be further increased on the basis of 2016, and the use value of the house will accelerate its return.The parties will further clarify that the house is for living, not for speculation. We should make precise efforts in regulation, curb investment speculation, increase the supply of ordinary commodity housing, and meet the rigid demand for housing. In order to achieve this goal, the government will provide more housing choices for residents by increasing the supply of residential land and standardizing the rental market.

  The regulation of the property market is not a comprehensive suppression, but a combination of strict control and guidance.

  It is a distinctive feature of the real estate policy in the new year that the policy will be implemented because of the city.What is certain is that the government will not comprehensively suppress and control the real estate policy across the board, but will combine strict control with guidance.The real estate market in first-tier cities should be strictly controlled; The focus of second-tier cities is to stabilize housing prices; The third-and fourth-tier cities still aim at "destocking".It is precisely because of the different control objectives that in the new year, there may be a greater division in the direction of housing prices in first, second and third tier cities.

  Of course, whether this series of regulatory policies can effectively affect the property market depends on the extent to which the government can resist the temptation of real estate to stimulate economic growth. In mid-2016, due to the steady economic growth in the first three quarters, the fourth quarter became a window period for regulation. And in the new year,Facing the new beginning, the balance between the government’s goal of achieving economic growth of not less than 6.5% and paying attention to the risk of real estate bubble will greatly affect the trend of the property market.

  At the same time, it should be clear that,Even under the combined effect of various conditions, it is difficult for the property market to rise as sharply as in 2016 in the new year, but it does not mean that the property market will definitely plummet.After all, no matter from the current proportion of mortgage in bank loans or the proportion of real estate in personal assets, the sharp drop in house prices will bring systemic financial risks and social risks, and the sharp drop in house prices does not meet the regulatory objectives.Therefore, in the new year, it is expected that house prices will bid farewell to the previous unilateral rising mode, and in the two-way mode, no matter the rise or fall, they will be controlled within a moderate range as much as possible.


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